Trends in Taiwanese Overseas Investment: Declining Share in China, Emerging Markets Rise, and the U.S. as a Potential Hotspot (台商對外投資趨勢：中國大陸比重大幅下降，新興市場崛起，美國成潛力股)
- 前半段為文章的英文版本 (The first half is the English version)
- 後半段為中文版本 (The second half is the Mandarin version)
Over the past decade, Taiwanese businesses (commonly known as “Taiwanese investors”) have undergone a dramatic shift in their overseas investment strategies. Once heavily reliant on China as a primary destination, they are now adopting a more diversified approach to global markets.
2010: A China-Centric Investment Strategy
Around 2010, Taiwanese businesses focused almost entirely on investing in China. At the time, China accounted for an overwhelming 83% of Taiwan’s total overseas investment. Proximity in language, culture, and geography, combined with China’s booming market, made this dependency seem logical and natural.
However, as the global economic landscape evolved, risks and challenges began to surface. Rising labor costs in China, increasing trade frictions, and a slowing Chinese economy highlighted the need for Taiwanese businesses to rethink their strategies. By 2024, this heavy reliance on China had significantly shifted toward a more balanced investment portfolio. According to recent data, investments in China as a percentage of Taiwan’s total overseas investment dropped sharply from 83% in 2010 to just around 7% by 2024.
2024 Q1-Q3: A Redistribution of Investments
Contrary to their earlier focus, Taiwanese businesses now exhibit a broader and more diversified global investment pattern. Below are the main overseas markets ranked by investment in the first three quarters of 2024:
- Singapore: Approximately USD 5.81 billion
- Australia: Approximately USD 3.79 billion
- China: Approximately USD 3.6 billion
- South Korea: Approximately USD 2.92 billion
- Hungary: Approximately USD 1.37 billion
- France: Approximately USD 800 million
- Canada: Approximately USD 590 million
- Denmark: Approximately USD 100 million
From these figures, Singapore leads the rankings with investments totaling around USD 5.81 billion, nearly 60% higher than the investments in China. Other prominent markets include South Korea in Northeast Asia, Hungary and France in Europe, and resource-rich Australia, all emerging as important destinations for Taiwanese investors.
Notable Trend of Repatriating Profits from China
Apart from diversifying investment destinations, Taiwanese businesses have also been actively repatriating profits earned in China back to Taiwan. During the first three quarters of 2024, publicly listed Taiwanese companies repatriated approximately TWD 91.5 billion (around USD 2.9 billion) from their Chinese operations, marking the second-highest amount in the past five years for the same period. This trend reveals a concerted effort to reduce exposure to external risks while increasing flexibility by reallocating capital back to their parent companies in Taiwan.
The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China are a crucial factor driving this phenomenon. From supply chain restructuring to efforts in capital reorganization, businesses are seeking more stable strategies to cope with an increasingly unpredictable environment.
External Factors and Geopolitical Influences
Adjustments in Taiwanese businesses’ investment strategies are closely tied to global geopolitical dynamics. Two key factors stand out:
- The U.S.-China Trade War and Tariff Policies
The tariff policies introduced during former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration brought about fundamental changes in U.S.-China trade relations. These changes prompted Taiwanese businesses to reconsider their supply chain arrangements. Many manufacturing companies began relocating production capacities or funds back to Taiwan or reallocating them to Southeast Asia and other international markets to mitigate risks. - U.S. Demand for Semiconductor Supply Chain Independence
The U.S. government’s emphasis on achieving greater autonomy in the semiconductor supply chain further fueled Taiwanese businesses’ interest in investing in the U.S. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), for instance, has significantly increased its investments in U.S. production facilities, capitalizing on policy incentives while maintaining its leadership position in the global tech industry.
2025 Outlook: Will the U.S. Become the Primary Focus?
Looking ahead to 2025, the U.S. market is likely to become a primary focus for Taiwanese investors. With policies promoting the reshoring of manufacturing industries and incentives designed to attract foreign direct investment—particularly in high-tech sectors—Taiwanese companies may increase their capital allocation to the U.S. For example, TSMC is already expanding its facilities in Arizona, signaling a strong commitment to this market.
Against this backdrop, the U.S. may surpass other traditional markets as the top investment choice for Taiwanese businesses, potentially becoming the largest recipient of Taiwanese overseas investments in 2025.
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台灣商人（台商）的對外投資近十多年來經歷了戲劇性的轉型。在過去，中國大陸曾是台商海外投資的絕對主力，但如今，這種高度依賴逐漸被多元化的投資策略取代。
2010年：中國大陸為核心的投資戰略
在2010年前後，台商的對外投資幾乎完全集中在中國大陸，當年中國大陸吸引了高達83%的台商投資金額。雙方在語言、文化及地理位置上的接近，加上中國大陸市場的快速增長，使得這種依賴幾乎成為理所當然。然而，伴隨著全球經濟局勢的變化，風險和挑戰也逐漸浮現，到了2024年，台商的對外投資已經大幅平衡化。根據最新數據，對中國大陸的投資比重已從2010年的83%驟降至僅7%左右。
2024年前三季：投資版圖的再分配
反觀其他市場，台商的佈局呈現出更廣、更具多樣性的格局。以下是2024年前三季台商對外投資的主要市場排序：
- 新加坡：投資金額約 58.1 億美元
- 澳大利亞：投資金額約 37.9 億美元
- 中國大陸：投資金額估計約 36 億美元
- 韓國：投資金額約 29.2 億美元
- 匈牙利：投資金額約 13.7 億美元
- 法國：投資金額約 8 億美元
- 加拿大：投資金額約 5.9 億美元
- 丹麥：投資金額約 1 億美元
從這些數據來看，新加坡以約58.1億美元居首，比對中國的投資額高出近60%。此外，東北亞的韓國、歐洲的匈牙利和法國，以及資源豐富的澳大利亞，也成為台商重要的投資標的。
中國大陸投資收益匯回的顯著現象
不僅僅是投資流向的變化，台商也逐漸將在中國大陸市場賺取的收益匯回台灣。2024年前三季，台灣上市櫃公司共計從中國市場匯回915億元台幣，為近五年來同期次高。這顯示出台商正在積極將資本轉回母公司，以降低外部風險，同時增強資金的靈活度。
中美之間的貿易摩擦是推動這一現象的關鍵之一。從供應鏈重組到資金撤離，企業都在努力尋找更穩定的策略以應對不確定的環境。
外部因素與地緣政治的影響
台商投資策略的調整與國際地緣政治局勢息息相關，以下是兩個關鍵驅動因素：
- 美中貿易戰與關稅政策
美國前總統川普時期的關稅政策，對美中貿易帶來了根本性的改變，也迫使台商重新考慮供應鏈的設置。製造業企業開始將資金和生產能力回流台灣，或轉向東南亞和其他國際市場以分散風險。 - 美國對半導體供應鏈的需求
美國政府對半導體供應鏈自主性的高度重視進一步推動了台商對美投資的熱情，尤其是台積電等半導體巨頭。他們已經在美國加碼高額投資新廠，以迎合政策誘因，同時鞏固在全球科技產業的領導地位。
展望2025年：美國成為關注重點？
展望2025年，美國市場有可能成為台商關注的主要焦點。美國積極推動製造業回流的政策，加上吸引外商直接投資的激勵措施，尤其是在高科技領域，都可能讓台商將更多資本投入美國。例如，台積電已經在亞利桑那州規劃擴建新廠，象徵著更多資源將聚焦於這片市場。
在這樣的背景下，美國市場有機會取代其他傳統市場，成為台商的主要投資選擇，甚至可能成為2025年最大規模的海外投資目的地。
