2024 has been a year of both brilliance and shadow for Taiwan’s economy. While global stock markets shone brightly, Taiwan’s stock market delivered an outstanding performance, with an annual growth of 32%, making it the second-best globally, only behind the U.S. market, which saw a remarkable 40% increase. However, Taiwan’s economic highlights were almost exclusively driven by the semiconductor and electronics industries, led by TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company). Meanwhile, traditional industries found themselves mired in challenges, struggling with pressures of transformation and price competition. This article takes a closer look at these stark contrasts and analyzes their potential future impact on Taiwan’s economy.
A Bright Engine for Taiwan’s Economy: The Semiconductor and Electronics Boom
Taiwan’s semiconductor and electronics industries were undoubtedly the driving force behind its economic growth in 2024. TSMC, as the world leader in the semiconductor field, saw its market valuation soar by 45%, further solidifying its global dominance. TSMC’s success not only propelled Taiwan’s stock market upward but also elevated Taiwan’s presence on the global economic stage.
Beyond TSMC, other Taiwanese electronics giants also had a stellar year. For instance, Hon Hai (Foxconn) aggressively expanded into the electric vehicle sector, leading to its stock price climbing 28% over the year. Quanta Computer, boosted by surging demand for servers and AI computing equipment, achieved record-breaking revenues and saw its market value grow by 35%.
Additionally, Taiwanese suppliers within Apple’s supply chain, such as Largan Precision and Pegatron, benefitted significantly from the global tech boom. With Apple’s new products performing strongly in sales and a transition toward higher-end technologies, Largan’s share price rose by 22%, and Pegatron grew by 18%.
Despite the exceptional performance of these companies, they represent only part of Taiwan’s economic picture.
The Harsh Winter for Traditional Industries: Formosa Plastics Group in the Spotlight
Contrasting the brilliance of the electronics sector is the lackluster performance of Taiwan’s traditional industries. Leading the struggles is Formosa Plastics Group (FPG), a symbol of Taiwan’s traditional manufacturing prowess. Once a shining beacon of the global petrochemical sector and firmly established as one of the world’s top ten petrochemical companies, Formosa Plastics now finds itself in operational distress.
In 2024, Formosa Plastics Group’s market value plummeted by 38%. This downturn can largely be attributed to weakening global demand for petrochemical products, as governments worldwide advocate for greener energy solutions and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, new competitors in emerging markets have leveraged technological advancements and flexibility to rapidly claim market share, further squeezing Formosa Plastics’ business.
Internal challenges have also played a role. Unlike the electronics sector’s proactive investment in upcoming technologies, Formosa Plastics has been slow to pivot toward new materials and green energy R&D. This sluggish adaptation to global trends has further eroded its competitiveness.
Formosa Plastics’ downfall, as a once-dominant leader driving Taiwan’s global economic presence, serves as both a cautionary tale of transformation pressures and a poignant reminder of the structural imbalances in Taiwan’s overall economy. The struggles of Formosa Plastics echo through other traditional industries, such as machine tools and screw manufacturing, which face stagnating growth. The penalties for not completing necessary technology upgrades are becoming more apparent by the day.
These challenges emphasize the urgency of providing traditional industries with new pathways forward even as Taiwan celebrates the global success of its high-tech sector.
A Growing Digital Divide in Talent and Resources
The rapid advancements in digitalization and AI technology have created fierce competition for software and IT talent. Semiconductor and electronics industries in Taiwan, backed by strong profit margins and attractive employee benefits, have successfully attracted top-tier talent. For example, Quanta significantly expanded its AI server projects, drawing in numerous AI engineers.
On the other hand, traditional industries like Formosa Plastics, which lack the profitability to match the tech sector’s compensation packages, face severe challenges in retaining skilled personnel. Such talent disparities not only reflect imbalances in industry competition but also amplify the difficulties faced by traditional industries during their transformation process.
Taiwan’s Potential Risk of “Dutch Disease”?
The significant concentration of resources within the semiconductor and electronics industries has sparked concerns among some economists regarding the risk of “Dutch disease” in Taiwan. Over-reliance on a single industry could lead to the decline of other industries, thereby weakening the overall resilience of the economy in the long run.
Others argue that resources should be naturally channeled into sectors with higher competitive advantages to maximize national economic efficiency. However, this depends on the government’s ability to implement flexible policies that allow traditional industries to transition gradually, minimizing shocks to the labor market.
Balancing Challenges for a Small Nation Like Taiwan
For a country like Taiwan, with a population of just 23 million, allocating limited resources effectively while maintaining competitiveness and diversity remains a long-term challenge. By evaluating lessons from the United States, we see that overly concentrated resources can result in supply chain vulnerabilities and structural fragility—key points worth factoring into Taiwan’s planning.
Moving forward, Taiwan needs a comprehensive and sustained development strategy that enables its high-tech industries to maintain global leadership while preserving the stability of its foundational economic structure.
Rethinking Taiwan’s Economic Duality in 2024
Overall, Taiwan’s economy in 2024 presents a polarized image. On one hand, the technology sector is thriving, bringing global recognition and prosperity to the nation. On the other hand, traditional industries are languishing, forcing Taiwan to grapple with challenges related to resource allocation and structural reform. Striking a balance between stability and innovation will be Taiwan’s most pressing task in the coming years.
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2024年對台灣的經濟表現來說，是光芒與陰影並存的一年。在全球股市大放異彩的同時，台灣股市的整體表現突出，以全年32%的漲幅位居全球第二，僅次於美國股市的40%。然而，台灣經濟的亮點幾乎全由以台積電為首的半導體產業與電子業公司所支撐，而其他傳統產業卻深陷困境，面臨轉型壓力與削價競爭。本文將深入探討這兩種極端現象的成因，並分析其對台灣經濟未來的潛在影響。
台灣經濟的引擎：半導體與電子業的高光時刻
2024年的台灣半導體和電子業可謂是台灣經濟增長的主引擎，台積電作為全球半導體領域的頂尖企業，在這一年市值增長了45%，繼續鞏固其在全球的領導地位。台積電的成功，不僅帶動了台股的整體上漲，也讓台灣在全球經濟版圖中更加耀眼。
除了台積電，其他台灣的電子業巨頭也表現亮眼。例如，鴻海（Foxconn）在2024年積極布局電動車市場，其股價全年上漲28%。廣達（Quanta Computer）在伺服器和AI運算設備的需求激增下，營收創新高，市值增長了35%。這些企業的卓越表現，得益於全球高端科技需求的持續增長，以及台灣企業在製造工藝與技術上的持久領先。
此外，供應蘋果產品的台灣供應鏈企業，如大立光與和碩，也都從科技熱潮中收益匪淺，由於蘋果新產品熱賣與向高階技術轉型，大立光股價上漲22%，和碩則成長了18%。
雖然這些公司托起了台灣經濟的重要增長，但並不代表台灣經濟的全貌。
傳統產業的嚴冬：台塑集團與其他產業的困境
與電子業的輝煌形成強烈對比的是，以台塑集團為代表的傳統產業的低迷表現。台塑集團一直是台灣傳統製造業的象徵，更曾穩居世界十大塑化公司行列，是全球石化業的重要巨擘。然而，這樣一個歷史悠久、在塑化業中地位顯赫的產業巨頭，如今也陷入了經營困境。
2024年，台塑集團的市值大幅縮減了38%。造成這一困境的主要原因在於全球石化市場需求減弱，以及各國政府推動綠能轉型，對傳統石化產品的需求下降。此外，新興市場的競爭者憑藉技術突破與靈活性迅速崛起，也壓縮了台塑的市場份額。
內部挑戰同樣不容忽視。台塑在面對全球綠能趨勢下，轉向新材料與新能源研發的步伐緩慢，相較於電子業中對未來技術的敏銳洞察和投入，這樣的轉型缺失讓台塑企業的競爭力進一步下滑。
台塑集團的現狀，不僅是傳統產業轉型壓力的縮影，也加劇了台灣整體經濟結構的不平衡。而這種現象也體現在其他傳統產業上。例如，工具機與螺絲產業同樣陷入增長瓶頸，過去無法進行技術升級的後果越來越明顯。
台塑這樣曾經帶領台灣經濟走向國際的產業巨擘，如今面對困境的落差，正強烈提醒台灣需在高科技蓬勃發展的同時，為傳統產業尋找新的出路，避免過度倚重單一產業結構的風險。
軟體與IT人才的爭奪戰：加劇產業兩極化
當前數位化與AI技術的飛速發展，使軟體與IT人才成為企業競爭的關鍵資源。在台灣，半導體和電子業憑藉其強勁的盈利能力與福利政策，吸引了大量高端技術人才。例如，廣達大幅強化AI伺服器領域的布局，吸引了許多AI工程師加入團隊。
相比之下，台塑集團等傳統產業因盈利能力落後，無力競爭這些技術人才，人才流失情況加劇了它們的挑戰。這種趨勢不僅帶來行業間的競爭不平衡，也讓轉型中的傳統產業舉步維艱。
台灣可能面臨的「荷蘭病」風險？
半導體與電子業的高度集中雖然帶來短期的經濟效益，但也引發部分經濟學者對「荷蘭病」的擔憂。過度依賴單一產業可能導致其他行業的萎縮，長期下來甚至會削弱國家的經濟韌性。
另一派意見則認為，資源應被自然傾斜至更具競爭力的產業，以實現國家整體經濟的最優化。但這同樣要求政府在政策上做到更為靈活，讓傳統產業仍然能穩步過渡，避免對就業市場造成過多衝擊。
平衡與挑戰：台灣的小國難題
事實上，台灣作為一個人口僅2300萬的小型經濟體，本身資源有限，難以做到對所有領域齊頭式平等的投入。對有限人才和資源的分配，必須在效率與公平之間找到微妙的平衡。
然而，以美國為例，我們也看到了資源全面傾斜可能產生的問題。COVID-19疫情期間，美國作為全球科技的超級大國，在尖端科技領域無可匹敵，卻因過度追求比較利益，導致疫情初期無法迅速生產基本的口罩與藥物原料。這一經驗值得台灣借鑑，提醒我們資源集中雖能帶來短期效益，卻可能埋下未來的隱患。
再思2024台灣經濟兩樣情
總體來說，2024年的台灣經濟正處於一次重要的轉折點。一邊是半導體與電子業的蓬勃發展，持續推動台灣在全球經濟中保持強勁競爭力；另一邊是傳統產業的困境，使得台灣面臨資源分配與長期結構問題的重大挑戰。
展望2025年，如何在推動產業創新升級的同時，維持部分基礎產業的穩定，甚至確保一定程度的產業多元化，是一個對於台灣前途至關重要，需要大家一起共同思考的現在式重要議題。