Taiwan Tech Dispatch

1. 前半段為文章的英文版本
   
2. 後半段為中文版本
   

Trump and High Tariffs: Challenges for Trade Surplus Nations

With Trump’s return to office, the self-proclaimed “Tariff Man” could once again target countries with significant trade surpluses with the U.S. China, Mexico, and Vietnam have often been in the spotlight, but Taiwan, as the ninth-largest trade surplus nation with the U.S., might face the risk of higher tariffs as well.

Currently, Taiwan’s annual trade surplus with the U.S. ranges between $40 billion to $50 billion—a substantial figure that makes Taiwan a possible target for economic scrutiny. For Taiwan, preventing pressure from a Trump-led administration’s tariff policies remains an important issue to address. By increasing its purchases from the U.S., Taiwan can not only reduce its trade surplus but potentially ease political tensions. But given the large scale of the trade imbalance, such an adjustment would require significant and strategic procurement decisions, particularly in high-value sectors like military arms.

The Role of Military Procurement in Reducing Trade Surplus

During the Biden administration, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan largely focused on regular ammunition and maintenance services, which are typically lower-cost items. By contrast, during Trump’s administration, high-value military assets like the HIMARS rocket systems and M1A2 Abrams tanks were approved, offering a fitting solution to the trade imbalance challenge. A Trump return could pave the way for more significant and costly arms deals with Taiwan.

Taiwan’s defense needs align closely with a few categories of high-value weapons that could serve as ideal procurement targets:

1. F-35 Fighter Jets

These fifth-generation fighters offer superior air capabilities and short takeoff and landing features. Their high unit price makes them a fitting option for balancing trade deficits while enhancing Taiwan’s air force.

2. Ticonderoga-class Cruisers

Equipped with Aegis combat systems, these cruisers provide formidable naval air-defense capabilities. Their advanced systems and high costs align well with Taiwan’s potential procurement goals.

3. E-2D Advanced Hawkeye Early Warning Aircraft

The E-2D Advanced Hawkeye, known for its extended-range radar and operational capabilities, enhances Taiwan’s ability to detect air threats while integrating seamlessly into its defense network. This high-priced military aircraft satisfies defense needs and contributes to reducing Taiwan-U.S. trade imbalances.

4. Ammunition, Components, and Maintenance Services

Supporting the procurement of high-cost platforms with related items such as ammunition and repair services ensures sustained trade growth and defense readiness.

Against the backdrop of Taiwan’s $40–50 billion trade surplus, high-value military purchases offer a dual benefit, addressing national security needs and mitigating trade imbalances.

Political and Economic Considerations of Arms Deals

Beyond economic factors, arms deals are laden with political nuances. U.S. defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon have longstanding ties to the Republican Party. Accelerating arms sales to Taiwan aligns with Republican interests while solidifying Trump’s political standing.

Meanwhile, arms sales to Taiwan involve delicate geopolitical calculations. The U.S. must carefully balance its relationship with China, consider regional reactions, and weigh international stability. Political realities could heavily influence the scope and nature of any military sales agreements.

How Taiwan Can Proactively Address Challenges

If Taiwan cannot procure entire high-value weapon platforms from the U.S., it can consider purchasing high-value military equipment and components instead. For instance, Taiwan’s domestic fighter jet program has struggled to develop high-output engines independently. These could be prioritized for procurement. Similarly, advanced Aegis-grade radar systems are another worthwhile investment. Using these components and technical support services, Taiwan could integrate them into the development of locally-produced military assets, replacing the Mirage 2000 fighters with low availability rate and aging first-line warships while modernizing its armed forces.

Another strategy is collaborating with the U.S. on building unmanned aerial and unmanned fleets, especially while Taiwan and provide the supply chains accordingly. Although unmanned vehicles are typically lower-cost, but it may need a large amount, so their potential demand is considerable, which could help mitigate trade imbalances while bolstering Taiwan’s defensive capabilities.

Potential Future Outcomes

The return of Trump’s tariff policies and his potential influence on arms sales could bring new challenges and opportunities to Taiwan-U.S. relations. While Taiwan must address the pressure of tariffs, expanded military procurement can simultaneously meet defense needs and help balance the trade deficit, adding complexity to bilateral ties.

The future warrants close attention, and Taiwan must remain proactive in addressing these uncertainties. Striking the right balance between economy and defense is crucial for maintaining its strategic position on the global stage.

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川普與高關稅：對貿易順差國的挑戰

隨著川普再度上任，這位自詡為“關稅人”的總統可能再次針對對美國貿易順差巨大的國家推出高關稅政策。中國大陸、墨西哥和越南早已成為焦點，台灣雖然相對不那麼顯眼，但仍是名列對美的第九大貿易順差國，也因此面臨被課以更高關稅的風險。近年來，台灣對美國的年度貿易順差約在400億至500億美元之間，數字相當可觀，讓台灣成為美國可能關注的對象之一。

對台灣而言，如何預防被川普政府以關稅施壓是一個值得積極面對的議題。透過增加對美採購，不僅能平衡雙方貿易，也能化解潛在的政治緊張。然而，要在短期內有效縮減這樣巨額的貿易順差，台灣不僅需要大幅增加採購量，還需要針對高單價商品下手，而美國的軍火無疑是最具吸引力的選項。

增加軍火採購對縮小貿易順差的潛力

在拜登政府執政期間，美國對台軍售雖然常態化，但主要集中於彈藥及維護類的中低價項目。相比之下，川普時代批准的高單價項目，例如海馬斯火箭系統和M1A2主戰坦克，更符合縮減貿易順差的需求。川普回歸後，是否可能推進更大規模、更昂貴的軍火交易，值得密切關注。

以台灣目前國防需求來看，以下幾類高價值武器和相關服務最有潛力成為採購目標：

1. 戰鬥機F-35：作為第五代戰機，F-35不僅能提高空軍戰力，其短場起降的能力更是最大優勢，再加上也具備極高的單價，是理想的採購目標。
2. 提康德羅加級巡洋艦：配備神盾級系統，可大幅增強海軍防空能力，且造價昂貴，符合需求。
3. E-2D空中預警機：E-2D Advanced Hawkeye是一種具備極高價值的遠程空中偵察與指揮平台。它的強大雷達系統和偵察能力，可顯著提升台灣對空中威脅的預警能力，同時提高整體國防網絡的運作效率。作為單價高昂的軍機，這類採購不僅滿足國防需求，也有助於縮小對美貿易順差。
4. 彈藥、配件及維修服務：針對高單價載台的配套需求，這些項目可持續提升雙方貿易額度。

以台灣每年400至500億美元的對美貿易順差為背景，這些高單價軍事採購將成為一個有效的調整工具，既符合彩購國防需求，也在經濟層面大幅減少雙邊不平衡。

軍火交易的政治與經濟考量

除了經濟需求外，軍火交易還有其他層面的考量。一方面，美國的軍火巨頭如洛克希德馬丁和雷神公司，長期以來是共和黨的重要金主。加速對台軍售，既符合共和黨選民的利益，也有助於川普進一步穩固其政治根基。

另一方面，對台軍售屬於敏感性較高的國際議題，無法純粹以經濟或貿易角度來看待。美國仍需平衡與中國大陸之間的複雜外交關係，同時考慮區域內其他國家的反應，因此最終的軍售決策可能取決於政治現實的推動。

台灣如何主動面對挑戰

如果台灣無法自美國購買完整的高單價武器載台，可以考慮退而求其次，採購高價值的軍武設備及零件。例如，台灣目前的織女星專案在國產戰鬥機上尚未成功自行開發高出力發動機引擎，這可成為優先採購項目。此外，神盾等級的高效能陣列雷達同樣是值得投資的設備。台灣可透過這些設備及零件，加上技術支援服務，自行進行軍備研發，逐步替代妥善率過低的幻象2000戰鬥機，以及老舊的一級戰鬥艦，進一步強化軍事現代化進程。

除此之外，台灣還可與美國合作建置無人機及無人艦的無人部隊，尤其可以運用台灣既有的相關供應鏈在其中。雖然無人載具的單價相較傳統武器平臺較低，但所需數量可能相當可觀，這既能滿足防禦需求，也在一定程度上協助平衡台美之間的貿易赤字。

未來的可能發展

川普上任後的關稅政策和對台軍售，可能為台美關係帶來新的挑戰與機會。雖然台灣必須應對關稅壓力，但擴大軍火採購既能滿足國防需求，也能有效平衡貿易順差，為雙方關係注入更多變數。

未來發展值得長期觀察，而台灣也需以積極的態度應對各種不確定性，確保經濟與國防的互不矛盾，並在國際舞台上持續維持妥善應對的能力。