- 前半段為文章的英文版本 (The first half is the English version)
- 後半段為中文版本 (The second half is the Mandarin version)
Trump continues to impose comprehensive tariffs on Chinese imports, including semiconductor products. This policy could not only reshape the global semiconductor supply chain but also create new market opportunities for Taiwan’s mature process foundries—such as UMC, PSMC, and VIS.
1. U.S. Semiconductor Demand and the Role of Mature Process Technology
Global Semiconductor Market Demand Distribution
According to market data, the U.S. currently holds the second-largest share of global semiconductor demand, accounting for approximately 25-30%, second only to China. Notably, mature process technology (28nm and above) is widely used in automotive electronics, IoT, industrial control, and image sensors.
| Region | Global Semiconductor Market Demand Share |
|---|---|
| China | 31% |
| United States | 25% |
| Europe | 20% |
| Japan | 10% |
| South Korea | 8% |
| Others | 6% |
The stable demand for mature process chips in the U.S. remains a crucial revenue source for Taiwanese semiconductor companies.
2. Challenges and Supply-Demand Trends in the 2025 Mature Process Market
Imbalance Between Supply Growth and Demand
Looking ahead to 2025, market forecasts indicate that global demand for mature process semiconductors will grow by only 6%, while China’s foundries (such as SMIC and Hua Hong) are expected to increase their production capacity by 27%. This supply-demand imbalance could lead to an oversupply crisis, intensifying market competition and driving prices down.
| Indicator | 2025 Growth Forecast |
|---|---|
| Global Demand Growth | +6% |
| China’s Production Growth | +27% |
Changes in Market Share Between Taiwan and China
Currently, Taiwan holds a 43% share of the global mature process market, maintaining its leading position. However, projections suggest that by 2027, China’s market share will rise to 47%, while Taiwan’s share may decline to 36%, indicating an increasingly competitive landscape.
| Year | Taiwan’s Market Share | China’s Market Share |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 43% | 30% |
| 2027 (Forecasted) | 36% | 47% |
With mounting pressure from oversupply, Taiwanese foundries are expected to face intensifying price competition from Chinese players, leading to a gradual decline in Taiwan’s market share. However, the U.S. tariff policy on Chinese semiconductor products may provide a critical lifeline for Taiwanese manufacturers.
3. U.S. Tariff Policy Reshaping the Supply Chain
Details of Tariff Adjustments
Starting in 2025, the U.S. government will increase tariffs on Chinese semiconductor exports to 20%, while Taiwan’s semiconductor exports to the U.S. will continue to benefit from zero tariffs. This policy significantly weakens the price competitiveness of Chinese foundries, prompting U.S. companies to shift orders to Taiwan.
| Tariff Target | Previous Rate | New Rate (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Chinese Exports | 10% | 20% |
| Taiwanese Exports | 0% | 0% |
This price shift is crucial for reducing manufacturing costs for U.S. companies, while Taiwanese foundries stand to benefit significantly.
4. Competitive Advantages of Taiwan’s Mature Process Industry
(1) Improved Price Competitiveness
Chinese foundries have long relied on low-price strategies to attract orders. However, with the new tariffs, this advantage will be significantly eroded. Even though Taiwanese manufacturers may have slightly higher production costs, their tax-free status and more consistent product quality make them more attractive to U.S. companies.
(2) Opportunities for Higher Capacity Utilization
With an oversupplied global mature process market, Taiwanese manufacturers are facing increasing pressure on fab utilization rates. However, if U.S. demand shifts to Taiwan, it will boost production utilization rates, helping to improve profitability.
(3) Strengthened Supply Chain Partnerships with U.S. Companies
U.S. companies have been actively diversifying supply chains to reduce dependence on China. This trend provides Taiwanese manufacturers with opportunities to establish long-term partnerships, particularly in sectors like automotive electronics, IoT, and high-reliability chips.
5. Taiwan’s Mature Process Semiconductor Industry Faces a Turning Point
China’s aggressive expansion in the mature process market has put Taiwanese manufacturers’ leadership at risk. Intensifying market competition and oversupply are expected to drive prices down, further squeezing profit margins. However, the U.S. tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products could create a new opportunity for Taiwanese foundries.
If U.S. companies redirect orders to Taiwan to avoid Chinese tariffs, UMC, PSMC, and VIS could become the biggest beneficiaries. This development will be an important trend to monitor moving forward.
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近來，川普持續對進口自中國的產品全面性施加關稅，其中也包含了半導體產品，因此這項政策不僅可能重塑全球半導體供應鏈，還有機會為台灣的成熟製程晶圓代工廠商——如聯電、力積電、世界先進——帶來新的市場機遇。
1. 美國半導體需求與成熟製程市場的定位
全球半導體市場需求分布
根據市場數據，美國目前是全球第二大半導體需求市場，約占 25-30% 的份額，僅次於中國。特別值得注意的是，成熟製程技術（28奈米及以上）主要應用於汽車電子、物聯網（IoT）、工業控制及影像感測器等需求領域。
| 區域 | 全球半導體市場需求比例 |
|---|---|
| 中國 | 31% |
| 美國 | 25% |
| 歐洲 | 20% |
| 日本 | 10% |
| 韓國 | 8% |
| 其他 | 6% |
美國對成熟製程晶片的穩定需求，對台灣相關廠商是重要的市場收入來源。
2. 2025年成熟製程市場的挑戰與供需趨勢
供給增加與需求成長的不平衡
展望2025年，根據預估，全球成熟製程市場需求增幅僅達 6%，但中國晶圓代工廠（如中芯國際、華虹半導體）產能預計增長 27%，這可能導致半導體的成熟製程市場供應過剩，加劇市場競爭壓力並造成價格下探。
| 項目 | 2025年增長預測 |
|---|---|
| 全球需求增長 | +6% |
| 中國產能增長 | +27% |
台灣與中國的市占率變化
目前，台灣在成熟製程全球市場的市占率為 43%，仍居領先地位。但根據預測，到2027年，中國的市占率將升至 47%，台灣可能下降至 36%，競爭顯然愈加激烈。
| 年份 | 台灣市占率 | 中國市占率 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024年 | 43% | 30% |
| 2027年 | 36% | 47% |
台灣晶圓代工廠在供過於求的壓力下，將面臨愈來愈多來自中國的低價競爭，預估台灣廠商的市占率也將節節下滑。然而，美國對中國半導體產品的關稅政策，或可為台灣廠商提供一線生機。
3. 美國關稅政策將重塑供應鏈
關稅調整的具體內容
自2025年起，美國政府對中國出口至美國的包括半導體在內的各項產品加徵 20% 關稅，而台灣目前在半導體產品則繼續享受 零關稅優勢。這一政策大幅削弱了中國晶圓代工廠的價格競爭力，美國企業因此更傾向於將訂單轉向台灣。
| 關稅對象 | 原本稅率 | 新增稅率（2025年） |
|---|---|---|
| 中國出口品 | 10% | 20% |
| 台灣出口品 | 0% | 0% |
這種價格上的轉變對於美國企業降低生產成本至關重要，而台灣廠商則有望從中受益。
4. 台灣成熟製程業者的競爭優勢
(1) 價格競爭力的大幅提升
由於中國晶圓代工廠一向依靠低價策略吸引訂單，加稅後的價格優勢將不復存在。而台灣廠商即便生產成本略高，考慮到免稅政策和品質的穩定性，仍然對美國企業更具吸引力。
(2) 產能利用率的提升機會
面對全球成熟製程市場的供給過剩，台灣業者在稼動率（產能利用率）方面逐漸承受壓力。然而，美國需求一旦轉向台灣，將提升各大晶圓代工廠的開工率，改善當前盈利狀況。
(3) 與美系企業深化供應鏈合作
美國企業近年來積極強化「去中化」供應鏈，減少對中國市場的依賴。這種趨勢有助於台灣業者建立長期的合作夥伴關係，特別是在車用電子、物聯網及高可靠性晶片方面。
5. 台灣成熟製程半導體業迎來機會
中國大陸在成熟製程市場的積極擴產，使得台灣廠商的領先地位岌岌可危，市場競爭加劇，供過於求的情況將導致價格下滑，進一步壓縮台灣廠商的利潤空間。然而，美國針對中國半導體產品加徵關稅，可能為台灣廠商帶來新的轉機。
如果美國企業為了避開中國關稅而擴大對台灣成熟製程的訂單，台灣的聯電、力積電、世界先進將有機會成為最大受益者，讓我們持續觀察下去。
2 thoughts on “Trump Continues to Impose Tariffs on Chinese Goods: Is This an Opportunity for Taiwan’s Mature Process Semiconductor Manufacturers? (川普對中國商品持續加徵關稅，台灣成熟製程半導體廠商的機會是否來臨？)”