- 前半段為文章的英文版本 (The first half is the English version)
- 後半段為中文版本 (The second half is the Mandarin version)
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A new wave of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration officially went into effect today, sparking fresh turmoil across global trade and capital markets. Given the sweeping scope of the policy—impacting a majority of the world’s economies—governments around the globe are scrambling to reach out to the White House in hopes of launching negotiations that may soften the blow to their domestic industries.
(Source: Trump administration says around 70 countries trying to strike deals as tariffs take effect)
The situation remains fluid, with little clarity on which countries may be given priority in the negotiation queue. With over 70 nations reaching out, it’s hard to imagine the White House conducting parallel talks with each one. Most analysts believe the negotiations will proceed in batches, and reports indicate that countries like Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Taiwan were among the earliest to contact the White House.
(Source: Trump prioritizes South Korea, Japan in trade negotiations, says economic advisor)
(Source: White House official confirms Taiwan had reached out for talks)
But what exactly are the conditions for gaining exemption or delaying the imposition of these new tariffs? Stephen Miran, Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, laid out five approaches on April 7 to help countries “share the burden” and improve their chances in negotiations:
- Accept U.S. tariffs without retaliatory measures
- Open domestic markets, eliminate harmful trade practices, and increase imports from the U.S.
- Boost national defense spending and purchase more U.S.-made military equipment
- Invest in the U.S. and establish manufacturing operations there
- Make direct contributions to the U.S. Treasury
When comparing these five strategies with Taiwan’s current policy direction, it’s evident that the government has taken action in several key areas:
- Accepting tariffs without retaliation: Taiwan has already announced it will not impose retaliatory tariffs.
- Opening markets and buying more from the U.S.: There’s public debate in Taiwan about reducing tariffs on U.S. imports like cars and nutritional supplements. Government discussions are ongoing.
- Increasing military spending and U.S. arms purchases: Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense confirmed it is planning new procurement proposals.
- Investing in the U.S.: Taiwan’s most high-profile example is TSMC’s $165 billion investment in U.S. semiconductor facilities. In addition, Taiwan is also actively participating in the pipeline construction project in Alaska.
- Direct donations to the U.S. Treasury: This remains the only suggestion with no current activity from Taiwan.
Despite not fulfilling all five criteria, Taiwan is generally seen as a cooperative partner—similar to Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. Perhaps that’s why Taiwan ranks third globally in likelihood of securing tariff relief before June, according to prediction markets like Polymarket with “Which countries will Trump reduce tariffs on before June?“. Only Japan and South Korea are ahead.
As Taiwan’s stock market continues to slump under pressure from global uncertainty, investors are hoping that progress in trade talks may soon bring some much-needed clarity and relief.
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川普政府的新一輪關稅政策今天起陸續生效，全球貿易與資本市場因此陷入動盪。由於這波關稅措施範圍廣泛，幾乎涵蓋全球多數經濟體，各國政府紛紛透過各種外交與非正式管道，急欲與白宮接觸，盼能展開談判以減輕衝擊。
（資訊來源: 美對等關稅今中午生效 白宮：近70國主動談判）
目前局勢仍未明朗，尚不清楚美方如何排序各國談判的優先順位。畢竟超過70個國家表達談判意願，不太可能由白宮同時逐一進行協商。據媒體報導，目前較早與白宮接觸的國家包括日本、南韓、越南與台灣等，被外界視為可能的優先協商對象。
（消息來源: 打電話有效？白宮：川普明確指示貿易談判「優先考量日本、南韓」）
（消息來源: 對等關稅各國求談判！白宮證實「台灣已聯繫美方」）
那麼，各國該如何與美國談出豁免或延後徵收關稅的可能？根據白宮經濟顧問委員會主席米倫（Stephen Miran）4月7日的說法，外國政府可透過下列五種方式展現合作誠意，爭取美方讓步：
- 接受美國關稅、但不祭出報復性關稅
- 打開本國市場，停止不公平貿易行為，並擴大對美採購
- 提高國防支出與軍購，尤其來自美方的軍武裝備
- 對美投資、在美設廠
- 直接捐款給美國財政部
如果將這五項條件對照台灣目前的政策與行動，可以發現已有相當程度的呼應與配合：
- 第1項：台灣已明確表態，不會開徵報復性關稅。
- 第2項：市場上有不少聲音建議政府開放汽車、營養食品等進口，雖然目前仍在討論階段，但方向上與美方期望一致。
- 第3項：台灣國防部已在立法院表示，正規劃進一步擴大對美軍購案，擬在近期提案。
- 第4項：最具代表性的例子便是台積電在美國的巨額投資案，金額高達1,650億美元，另外也積極參與阿拉斯加的油管建設計畫。
- 第5項：唯一尚未被提及或執行的，是「直接捐款給美國財政部」。
總體而言，台灣在應對川普新關稅政策的態度與作法，與南韓、日本、越南等國相似，屬於相對配合的陣營。也因此，在國際預測市場平台 Polymarket 上，「哪一國將率先在6月前成功降低川普關稅」的賭盤中，台灣的勝算排名全球第三，僅次於並列第一的日本與南韓。
隨著台股近期連日下跌，市場情緒明顯受到影響，投資人也寄望能儘早聽到關稅談判的好消息，為資本市場帶來一絲喘息空間。